Sunday, October 31, 2010

Indoco Remedies: All segments deliver

Results Analysis from Equitymaster on 29-Oct-2010:

Indoco Remedies: All segments deliver

Indoco Remedies Limited has announced its 2QFY11 results. The company has reported 41% YoY and 65% YoY growth in sales and net profits respectively. Here is our analysis of the results.

Performance summary
  • Revenues grow by a robust 41% YoY during 2QFY11 owing to strong growth in sales from both the domestic and the exports formulations businesses.
  • Operating margins improved by 1.8% due to lower staff costs and other expenditure (as percentage of sales).
  • Led by the strong growth in sales and net profits, bottomline grows by 65% YoY.

Consolidated snapshot
(Rs m) 2QFY10 2QFY11 Change 1HFY10 1HFY11 Change
Net sales 961 1,354 41.0% 1,967 2,483 26.2%
Expenditure 830 1,146 38.1% 1,627 2,084 28.1%
Operating profit (EBIDTA) 131 208 59.3% 340 399 17.4%
Operating profit margin (%) 13.6% 15.4% 17.3% 16.1%
Other income 1 0 1 0 -92.9%
Depreciation 29 34 15.9% 57 66 15.5%
Interest 7 5 -19.7% 16 12 -25.8%
Profit before tax 96 170 76.9% 269 322 19.7%
Tax 3 17 400.0% 7 21 182.4%
Profit after tax/ (loss) 93 153 65.0% 261 301 15.1%
Net profit margin (%) 9.6% 11.3% 13.3% 12.1%
No. of shares (m) 12.3 12.3
Diluted earnings per share (Rs)* 37.5
P/E ratio (x) 12.7
* based on trailing 12 months earnings

What has driven performance in 2QFY11?
  • Indoco’s 41% YoY growth in sales during the second quarter was driven by both the domestic and the exports formulations businesses. Sales from the domestic formulations business grew by a robust 37% YoY. The therapeutic areas which contributed to the growth of this business were ophthalmology, vitamins & minerals, respiratory and pain management.

  • Performance on the exports formulations front was also healthy with sales growing by a robust 39% YoY during the quarter. While exports to the regulated markets grew by 20% YoY, those to the semi regulated markets registered a robust 140% YoY growth. Growth in the latter was mainly led by Africa, Asia and Latin America. Indoco, meanwhile, strengthened its relationship with US based Watson by expanding its product development and supply pipeline by four more products. The current market size of these four products has been pegged at US$ 765 m. The partnership with Watson now covers a total of 10 products and will be the key growth driver as far as the US is concerned.

  • Indoco had also signed a contract with South Africa’s largest pharma company called Aspen Pharmacare in FY10. This deal encompasses 7 ophthalmic products covering 30 emerging markets. Indoco will offer these products for registration and supply the same from their US FDA approved plants. Aspen will market and distribute these products on receiving approval. This deal is expected to give a major boost to Indoco’s contract manufacturing business.

  • As far as the emerging markets are concerned, Indoco registered 11 products across various markets during the quarter. These products are expected to be commercialized in the third quarter of this fiscal thereby giving a further boost to revenues from the emerging markets.

    Consolidated snapshot
    (Rs m) 2QFY10 2QFY11 Change 1HFY10 1HFY11 Change
    Domestic





    Formulations 645 884 37.2% 1,323 1,610 21.7%
    APIs 19 36 85.4% 43 65 51.6%
    Total domestic (i) 664 920 38.6% 1,366 1,675 22.7%
    Exports





    Formulations 260 353 35.4% 530 681 28.5%
    - Regulated 227 271 19.7% 451 522 15.6%
    - Semi-Regulated 34 82 140.4% 79 160 102.4%
    APIs 30 51 69.6% 42 81 93.1%
    Total exports (ii) 290 403 39.0% 572 762 33.2%
    Grand Total (i+ii) 954 1,323 38.7% 1,938 2,437 25.8%

  • As far as the emerging markets are concerned, Indoco registered 11 products across various markets during the quarter. These products are expected to be commercialized in the third quarter of this fiscal thereby giving a further boost to revenues from the emerging markets.

What to expect?
At the current price of Rs 474 the stock is trading at a price to earnings multiple of 7.7 times our estimated FY12 earnings. Going forward, we expect Indoco’s revenues to be driven by its exports business. The US generics market will be the key catalyst in spurring growth and its focus on ophthalmology will augur well for the company since it is a niche area having relatively lesser competition as opposed to plain vanilla generics. The company is also making forays into the emerging markets through partnerships.

However, cut throat competition in the domestic market, pricing pressure in the global generics market, sharp fluctuations in currency movement and regulatory changes both in the domestic and international markets could dampen Indoco’s performance. Overall, we maintain our positive view on the stock from a long term perspective.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

7 Mahurat picks from ICICI Securities

With equity indices already flirting with life-time highs, our equity strategy will be to buy on any declines in the markets as we are cautiously optimistic as the velocity of markets is surely surprising and one which is fuelled by liquidity, mainly in terms of FII inflows.

At 20000+ index levels, the broader markets are trading at 18.7x and 16.2x their FY11E and FY12E earnings, respectively. Though the valuations on a FY11E basis have breached the rich valuation zone, our sense is that market expectations have rolled over the valuations on FY12E earnings. As we are writing this, we are in the midst of the Q2FY11 earnings season. Till now, Corporate India has met the expectations of the markets.

Following are 7 Mahurat picks from ICICI Securities:

1) Dish TV (Target Price: 70)

2) IDBI Bank (Target Price: 206)

3) IDFC (Target Price: 240)

4) Glenmark Pharma (Target Price: 413)

5) Maruti Suzuki (Target Price: 1,783)

6) Reliance Industries (RIL) (Target Price: 1,260)

7) Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) (Target Price: 1,210)

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Accumulate Marico

Strongly recommended to accumulate Marico Ltd.
at current levels with a medium-term target of 188.00
with a stoploss below 124.00.
Actually, the stock has good fundamentals, so SL is not really
needed. It should be collected as a SIS Stock.



Currently trading at 142 levels

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook


Gold's correction from 1388.1 extended further last week and the break of 1325.6 support confirmed that a short term top is at least formed. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1155.6 to 1388.1 at 1299.3 and below. On the upside, above 1349.6 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1388.1 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). While a short term top is in place at 1388.1, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Recent up trend could still extend further to 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1266.5 resistance turned support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. The anticipated correction didn't happen and gold will now likely climb further to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 before making a top.





BHARTI SHIP near major breakout

BHARTI SHIP

Rs 247 is showing sustained downtrend in weekly graph but now trend is changing as breakout nears. Stock trades above 13 and 26 Week Moving Averages and once Rs 255 is crossed on sustained basis next target can be Rs 290-300 also.




 



Saturday, October 16, 2010

SKSMICROFINANCE-Avoid let the dust settle

Avoid –SKSMICROFIN Cmp Rs.1135


This newly listed stock which has traded just 44trading days has been in news in last few weeks for all negative reason. Many investor and traders have brought into the stock as George Soros Quantum (M) fund, invested about Rs 26 crore to pick up a small stake. But some time brilliant investor too can make mistake and my personnel experience says collecting money from borrowers is never easy and now with many state government imposing strict laws on collection and with legal process in India being weak. Small or Micro financing can be a big failure so I would advised caution in this stock as this is the first company to list so. Investor can wait for few more quarters to know how the company can perform before investing their hard earned money.




 


Nifty EOD 15 Oct 2010 Technial Analysis( Bullish On Monday)

Nifty-Spot ended at 6062.55 with a huge decline of -1.90% after hitting Days’ High on Opening at 6200.60.It has formed a Long Black Candle on Daily Price Chart pattern. The Up Trend which started on 01/09/2010 is broken today, as per Our Nifty Next Trend Finder .Now Long Positions awaited can wait for Few more days to enter in Trades with around 5900/6000 levels. Our NNI-Nifty Next Indicators which gains by +60.0% , it is now trading at +13.60% along with Increase in Open-Interest and Decline in Volume, suggest a Bullish Trading session on Monday(18Oct2010) or a no-sell-off or Flat to Positive Trading Session.

BULLISH STOCKS

BULLISH STOCKS

  • GARWARE OFFSHORE 145.35
  •  JAY BHARAT MARUTI 81.80
  •  WEBSOL ENERY 130.45 
  •  W I SHIPYARD 16.7

jay bharath maruthi is bullish  the chart is attached

here....





RS 800 up trend in infosys and Rail

Infosys Technologies

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs3,080

Target Price: Rs3,300

Solid show marred by muted earnings outlook

· Revenues at US$ 1,496 mn (+10.2% QoQ) beat high expectations. Op mgns expanded by ~170 bps QoQ to 33.3% (V/s exp of ~190 bps increase)

· Co wide vol growth at 7.1% QoQ (onsite vols up by ~15% QoQ) Broad based growth across verticals/service lines with Europe joining the party with a ~16% QoQ growth

· FY11 Revenue guidance raised to ~24-25% YoY growth now, however EPS raise muted and a tad disappointing at Rs115-117 ( V/s Rs112-117 earlier)

· Marginal change in FY11/12E EPS despite higher currency reset helped by ~2.4%/6% increase in revenues. Retain ACCUMULATE with a March’12 TP of Rs3,300



Rallis India

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs1,416

Target Price: Rs1,800

Price target revised to Rs 1,800

· Q2FY11 results were broadly in line with estimates with EBITDA margins of 24% and PAT growth of 23% to Rs 587 mn

· Revenues, +15% yoy, were below estimates due to floods in northern region - expected to catch up in the coming quarters

· Outlook for H2FY11 remains encouraging with estimated APAT growth of 44% based on strong domestic outlook

· With strong visibility, we rollover our price target to FY13E and revise price target to Rs 1,800 (from Rs 1,440) and maintain BUY

RS 800 up trend in infosys and Rail

Infosys Technologies

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs3,080

Target Price: Rs3,300

Solid show marred by muted earnings outlook

· Revenues at US$ 1,496 mn (+10.2% QoQ) beat high expectations. Op mgns expanded by ~170 bps QoQ to 33.3% (V/s exp of ~190 bps increase)

· Co wide vol growth at 7.1% QoQ (onsite vols up by ~15% QoQ) Broad based growth across verticals/service lines with Europe joining the party with a ~16% QoQ growth

· FY11 Revenue guidance raised to ~24-25% YoY growth now, however EPS raise muted and a tad disappointing at Rs115-117 ( V/s Rs112-117 earlier)

· Marginal change in FY11/12E EPS despite higher currency reset helped by ~2.4%/6% increase in revenues. Retain ACCUMULATE with a March’12 TP of Rs3,300



Rallis India

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs1,416

Target Price: Rs1,800

Price target revised to Rs 1,800

· Q2FY11 results were broadly in line with estimates with EBITDA margins of 24% and PAT growth of 23% to Rs 587 mn

· Revenues, +15% yoy, were below estimates due to floods in northern region - expected to catch up in the coming quarters

· Outlook for H2FY11 remains encouraging with estimated APAT growth of 44% based on strong domestic outlook

· With strong visibility, we rollover our price target to FY13E and revise price target to Rs 1,800 (from Rs 1,440) and maintain BUY

Friday, October 15, 2010

RAYMOND can return 8-10% within a week

RAYMOND can return 8-10% within a week


 

RAYMOND Rs 396 can target Rs 430-435 in a week or two. Stock trades in an up channel and after consolidating nearly 2 months it is showing symptoms of going higher again. Above Rs 410 stock would move fast towards target.
 
 




 

Thursday, October 14, 2010

COAL INDIA is a very good company


The markets have run up a lot in recent times breaking all barriers. Right at the time comes a fat IPO. I have been seating on cash since 5860-5900 levles selling of 70% of my portfolio. I never (as predicted by my technical charts and oscillators and indicators) expected that markets will head upto 6250 and continue a prolonged bull run. Same thing happened in 2008 when markets were at peak came the RELIANCE POWER IPO. What happened after that is histroy and the wounds are still there for many. I have learnt that its good to buy when there is blood in DALAL STREET, not in Spring time like now. So I am trying to be patient trying to do value picks. Let me outline now why I will not invest in COAL INDIA IPO.

COAL INDIA is a very good company overall and has great prospect for long term investors. The price band is very lucrative 225-245. Those who will apply please do so in the higher band to get any given the tremendous euphoria and the results of last 5-10 listings shooting over 100/75% like Career Point. I do not expect such gala listing for COAL INDIA, it will be in the range of 260-275. Based on SOTP and DCF valuation of CIL's fair price comes out to be 345-365. Now given that on one demat you as a retail investor cannot put more than 1 lakh. I do not see retail investors getting more than 50-100 units allocated in the IPO. Given the listing hike (provided market remains upbeat) this comes to a profit of average 1000-2000 rupees. This is too small given the stature of the company. I would take this kind of listing returns from a fake company like NU-TEK India. I also firmly believe that the government of india with the help of FIIs and DIIs are keeping the markets buyont ahead of PSU IPOs and FPOs. Markets have historically tanked in Decemeber-January. In this time it will not at all be any crash like 2008, but we cannot rule out NIFTY SPOT to come down to 5800-5600 during that time.

So my strategy in COAL INDIA will be not to invest in IPO. I will wait for the markets to tank and bring price to 225 and hold for 2 years.  If markets continue up march and so does COAL INDIA, I will look for value pick else where. I will never chase it. This is exactly what I did with REC. Bought IPO at 90 and then markets crashed in 2008, REC crashed to 60. So I had to average out in that dip and finally sold off at 300. Those who are holding REC, continue to do so. The stock will be 650-800+ in 2 years.

GSFC Rs 327 near major breakout

GSFC : http://www.gsfclimited.com/
GSFC –Book Value Rs.268 & EPS-31—lowest PE in FERTilzer --Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals operates in two business segments: Fertilizer products and Industrial products. Fertilizer products include urea, ammonium sulphate, di-ammonium phosphate, ammonium phosphate sulphate and traded fertilizer products. Industrial products include caprolactam, nylon-6, nylon filament yarn, nylon chips, melamine, polymer products and traded industrial products. The Company's products include industrial products, agro products and biotech products. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010 (fiscal 2010), the Company had a fertilizer production of 18.13 lacs metric tons.
Technical View:
The stock is breaking out of a major consolidation and volumes have improved very nicely in recent past. Stock trading above Rs 325 can target Rs 349 in short-term while Rs 370 can be possible in Mid-term.

ABGSHIP rokkkzzz to a gain of RS. 23,0000/-

ABGSHIP rokkkzzz to a gain of RS. 23,0000/-

guys pls post your opinion

Monday, October 11, 2010

ABGSHIPYARD ROCKZZZZ





ABGSHIPYARD ROCKZZZZ...........Single gain in first day.

buy cal given today.!!!

Update on the GOLD chart:

Update on the GOLD chart: Click chart for enlarged view.

The rising wedge pattern has been negated and as written earlier we had a big move in gold prices on the upside, Now the channel comes into play giving us tgts close to 1700$ on the upside while the breakout point of the previous swing high which is 1265$ remains a potential support on Gold.

The RSI is in the over bought zone but can remain in that zone for a few weeks, as i have marked on the chart with an arrow line, it has happened earlier, so it can happen again that way.

Ultimately Gold prices remain in a secular bull market of its own, but i see major speculation on gold as we INDIANS celebrate the diwali festival and there is lot of buying in GOLD at that time, as it is seen, buying GOLD on diwali is auspicious and good., so prices may soar ahead further.

Today's Market

Nifty has closed above 6150.
There is positive flows from FII.
The Put call Ratio at 1.08 which is not alarmingly high.
There was buildup at 6200 call & put, along with 6100 and 6000 put indicating portfolio hedge.
There are no negative news in sight except for IIP data and International market.
All above reasons does not suggest any negativity in the market.

Stocks and Sectors to watch :

The biggest gainer were Poly films Stocks (Jindal Poly, Polyplex, Garware Poly, Uflex), they still looks strong with first results of Jindal poly, which is expected on 13th Oct. UFLEX is a better bet out of this pack.

Huge dividend in Piramal Healthcare is overdue, Expect the company to declare a big dividend very soon. (The have cash or Cash equivalent of Rs 485/- per share (PV of cash flow) against the share price of 515, with residual business of CRAMS

RBI has allowed further buying in REC by FII, expect that stock to remain strong.

There are indications and probabilities that Financial Institutions may sell pledge stake of Ispat Ind to other steel companies,  Such stake sale, if it happens will be at premium to market price and there will be open offer, Expect this stock to be Re rated.
There is a buy reports from a leading brokerage on DCB, expect that stock to do well.

There was huge action in Geodesic, followed by price and volume jump. There was huge selling by a leading FII on the counter, which seems to have been absorbed.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

BUY ABG SHIP YARD NOV FUT OR STOCK FOR BIG GAIN

ABGSHIPYARD-Weekly Break-Out

Weekly Break-Out - Stock on weekly basis has given a Break-out with huge volumes making 34weeks high, while closing @ highest level in 35Weeks. Most of the moving averages have converged with 25DMA-249, 90DMA-250 & 200DMA-255, The stock Gapped-down on 05/Feb/2010 and gap level come to Rs.323-326 which would be important resistance on higher side. This stock being underperformer in whole rally can start to perform.
Value Buy- ABGSHIPYARD Cmp Rs.293 –Face value-10 Book Value-211 12Months trailing EPS=42 P/E-6.99 Market cap=Rs.1496crs (Oct-08-2010 Close) All time High Rs.1132 (04/Jan/2008) All time low Rs.62 (04/Feb/2009) 52Week High-346 Low-176

ABGSHIPYARD carries out shipbuilding and ship repair business. The Company's products include tugs and pusher crafts, bulk carriers, floating cranes and jack-up drilling rigs. Its other products include 102M side loader / newsprint / container ship and 83.5M DP2 diesel electric propulsion diving support vessel. The Companys shipyard has a lift capacity of 4,500 tons, side transfer facilities, concentrator (CNC) plasma cutting machine, bending rolls, hydraulic press, cold shearing machine, frame bending machine and steel processing machinery. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010, (fiscal 2010), the Company delivered 14 vessels. As of March 31, 2010, it delivered 122 vessels. During fiscal 2010, it produced and sold 13 ships and barges. During fiscal 2010, the Company completed the ship transfer system at the Dahej unit. During fiscal 2010, it bagged a order for the construction of three cement carriers of 20,000 deadweight tonnage.

how retail investors are made fool

Buy Koutons Retail at current level: Karvy Stock Broking
Published on Mon, Oct 04, 2010 at 19:10   |  Updated at Mon, Oct 04, 2010 at 20:11  |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Ambreesh Baliga of Karvy Stock Broking suggests one can buy Koutons Retail India at these levels.

Baliga told CNBC-TV18, “I have been tracking Koutons Retail India for a while because of all the issues pertaining to this company especially the loans and the sort of so called defaults and there seems to have been margin calls, this is what the market rumor is because of which we have seen this sort of a fall in the stock but at least today its got arrested. But fundamentally speaking in spite of all the issues which the company has the basic model of the company is still workable, although people have been comparing it with Vishal Retails and Subhiksha, I don’t think that’s the way this company will go because the basic model itself seems fine, it seems workable. I think once the finances are sorted out at these levels it makes a lot of sense I think one can still take a risk at these levels which is nearly 50% of the levels it was quoting around 3 weeks back. So at these levels I would be a buyer."
 
India Info, ING Vysya, Karvy sell 11.3 lk shares of Koutons
Published on Tue, Oct 05, 2010 at 15:11   |  Updated at Tue, Oct 05, 2010 at 15:18  |  Source : Moneycontrol.com

Ambit Finvest Private Limited sold 2,61,187 shares of
Koutons Retail at Rs 141.64 a share; Caparo Financial Solutions sold 2,01,670 shares at Rs 151.09; India Infoline Investment Services Pvt Ltd sold 1,75,000 shares at Rs 139.65 and Rapid Credit & Holdings sold 2.25 lakh shares at Rs 140.05 on Monday.
ING Vysya Life Insurance Company sold 293,976 shares at Rs 146.94 and 298,738 shares at Rs 147.38 a share on Monday. Karvy Financial Services sold 2.05 lakh shares at Rs 140.23 and Karvy Financial Services 153,800 share at Rs 140.55.

Monday, October 4, 2010

10 Midcap Stocks

10 Midcap Stocks

 

We are suggesting 10 midcap stocks in this Midcap Monitor report which we believe have 35 -50% upside by Dec.-2011. We have selected the following stocks from the entire gamut of Midcap growth story -

1) Ashok Leyland
2) KEC International
3) Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
4) Educomp Solutions
5) Petronet LNG
6) Sintex Industries
7) Sobha Developers
8) Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd
9) Shree Cement
10) Voltas

Equity SIP

Some stocks are great for the Equity SIP mode of investing. These are stocks we love to accumulate, in small baby steps. That’s because they are Value Picks. They represent long term value. They are like solid assets. They are companies which we know are there for the long haul. Companies that have led, are leading and show promise of remaining market leaders in areas of business that show the promise of a long and prosperous life. Equity SIP is best done in companies which we would love to own, if we could afford to. Such a company is tireless marathoner, has a solid, stable and ethical management; operates in a perpetual sunrise area with a never-say-die attitude. This is a company that stays focused on its line of business and is not an unsteady opportunity hunter.
Now Invest in Equity SIP with Value Picks
Gail  
Indian Oil Corporation  
NTPC  
SBI  
Maruti  
L&T  
TCS  
Reliance Industries  
HDFC Bank  
ITC  
Sail